Experts from the Association of Innovative Regions of Russia (AIRR) presented an updated calculation of the Regional Demand Index for Talent in the Innovation Economy (STEM) for the first quarter of 2026. Despite the traditional seasonal recovery in the labor market after the New Year period, the medium-term trend still indicates declining demand for talent. In Q1 2026, demand for innovation economy personnel—i.e., STEM professionals—rose by 27.5% compared to the previous quarter; however, over the past 12 months (March 2026 vs. March 2025), the level decreased by 13.6%. The decline in demand for highly qualified specialists is occurring against the backdrop of slowing economic activity. In 2025, industrial production grew by 1.3%, investment activity remained subdued, and consumer demand showed moderate dynamics. The AIRR study also highlights changes in the structure of demand. While the IT sector previously acted as one of the key market drivers, employers are now increasingly seeking engineering, research, and production specialists. The share of IT company vacancies in the total number of STEM vacancies fell to 13.2%, down from 15.3% a year earlier. Over the year, the absolute number of IT vacancies decreased by 27.3%, significantly outpacing the overall decline in STEM demand. “Demand is gradually shifting toward engineering, operational, and research professions. These areas are currently less susceptible to automation, as they require solving physical and applied real-world problems. Amid widespread concerns about AI algorithms gradually displacing humans, we believe these professions will remain ‘human’ for now,” commented AIRR Director Alexander Smekalin. Employment conditions are also gradually changing. After a period of rapid expansion of remote and hybrid formats, the labor market is returning to a more traditional model of work organization. In Q1 2026, the share of full-time vacancies increased to 87.5%, rising by 13.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. Another notable trend is the narrowing of employment opportunities for young specialists. Employers are reducing investment in training candidates without work experience and increasingly prefer applicants with ready-made competencies. The share of vacancies open to candidates without experience dropped to 10.1%, down from 12.9% a year earlier. This trend is especially pronounced in regions with higher wage levels, where companies are less willing to invest in long-term training. At the same time, demand for older specialists is increasing. In conditions of limited resources and continued pressure on payroll budgets, employers are more often choosing candidates with lower salary expectations who can integrate into workflows more quickly. According to AIRR experts, the labor market is gradually showing signs of shifting from an “employee-driven” market—typical of recent years marked by labor shortages—back to a more traditional model in which employers play the key role in hiring decisions and set employment conditions. “The conventional unemployment rate no longer fully reflects the state of the labor market and ongoing changes. Employers remain interested in qualified specialists but are increasingly focusing on productivity and efficiency of existing staff rather than actively expanding headcount. Companies are becoming more cautious in hiring, preferring to retain current employees. At the same time, the number of workers on downtime, part-time schedules, or at risk of layoffs is increasing,” notes Alexander Smekalin. According to AIRR forecasts, in Q2 2026 demand for STEM specialists will remain relatively stable, taking seasonal factors into account. At the same time, companies will continue adapting to slower economic activity primarily by improving the efficiency of existing teams and redistributing workloads rather than significantly expanding hiring. The index is calculated as the number of STEM vacancies per 10,000 economically active people in a region (STEM stands for Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics—a term used to denote strategically important academic disciplines and professional fields). This material was prepared in partnership with the online recruiting platform HeadHunter (hh.ru). The full report is available on the AIRR website.